EPCOT or Epcot?

My wife was listening to the first part of a recent WDW Radio Show hosted by Lou Mongello while I was playing with our daughter.  Lou and his guest, who I apologize for not getting or going back to before writing this to name properly, were discussing the EPCOT pavilion that used to be known as The Living Seas. 

It got me to thinking more about my childhood and what that park meant to me as a kid and later as a teen.  It has always been my favorite park in Florida, though lately I’ve begun to question whether that’s because of what it is today or what my childhood memories paint over it when I’m there?

I watched the excellent ‘Walt – The Man Behind the Myth’ again this past weekend with my wife.

 

If you haven’t seen it, you REALLY need to check it out.  It’s a very loving portrait of Walt and many of his associates, many of them now departed.  Marc Davis for instance sat for his interview with the movie folks just weeks before he passed away. 

It’s full of memories and discussions with other now departed and very missed souls like Harriett Burns, Peter Ellenshaw, John Hench, Bruce Gordon and too many others to mention.  It’s also produced by Walt’s grandson, Walter Elias Disney Miller. 

The movie is done very well.  It show’s lots of touching, behind the scenes moments and candid pictures of Walt both at work, but more importantly with his family.  He loved his daughters and his family very much and you can FEEL it come through in the words of these people, even ones Walt was very tough on like his animators. 

The movie has room to gloss over less happy times in Walt’s life, but I find that it makes no apologies for some of the silly or strange things that both Walt and Roy did or said nor does it try to delete them from the past by no mentioning them.  To know Walt the man, not the myth, is to know him warts and all. 

On a side note, I grew up in the same geographic area as Walt and his siblings, just some 70 years later in Walt’s case.  My wife finds these movies and biographies fascinating because she pointed out to me that not much has changed in that time in the way most people raise their families or go about their business.  She finds it interesting how much of Walt and Roy’s mannerisms, outlook and disposition are still present in mid-western families like my own.

Anyhow, what got me to thinking about EPCOT (not Epcot) was some discussion in this movie by Ray Bradbury.  Specifically it was about Ray’s great insight and respect for Walt’s vision of the future.

And then it struck me . . . the thing I used to LOVE about EPCOT isn’t really there anymore.  The dream that was Walt’s EPCOT of course we all know didn’t quite make it to what was built in Florida.  But what WAS built made no apologies for our past either.  Instead it looked to the future and told a story that could have only been based on a song line that will echo in your head long after you’ve heard it (and no, I’m not talking about Small World); ‘it’s a great big beautiful tomorrow, just a day away…’ the Carousel of Progress.

The heart of what Card Walker, Marty Sklar, Ray and countless others infused into EPCOT in the late 70’s was their attempt to infuse the park with Walt’s unbridled optimism.  Every where you went was a discussion about our past, our present and a look to our future.  There are remnants of that story still throughout the park, but it’s not nearly as cohesive as it used to be, and that’s a shame.

I mean who doesn’t get a chill when they listen to the ending of The American Adventure?  A song and a movie more about our future told THROUGH our past then the other way around.

I hope that we find that heart for EPCOT again some day soon.  I, like many of you, would like nothing more than to be a part of it.  For it’s more than a ride here or a freshening up there.  It’s a story of innovation, hope, hard work and determinism to leave this place a different and hopefully better place than we found it. 

The story of EPCOT IS that hope and that vision.

You can see more about Ray Bradbury’s encounters with Walt and his contributions to EPCOT in a couple of great articles Wade Sampson wrote for MousePlanet here and here.

Spoke too soon

Well, no sooner did I open my mouth about the relative amount of freeze in new hiring and the lack of layoffs to date at Disney, and then they go and offer buyouts to people today!

If we believe a recent Jim Hill discussion completely (and why wouldn’t we, Jim’s stuff is top notch of course), maybe the folks at Disney didn’t hear in Obama’s inaugural speech what they had hoped for in terms of a bright future, prosperity soon, etc.  I thought the new President’s speech was solid and well crafted, but like Tom Brokow I didn’t find it quite as high minded as some of the other notable speeches from JFK, Roosevelt, and others.  It will surely be remembered, and it was a very good speech, just not an ‘I have a dream’ speech.

One thing I don’t know if many of you caught however was that the newest young ladies at the White House got a special treat last night thanks to the Disney Company.  Apparently they, friends and other family got to watch Bolt! and High School Musical and had a surprise visit from one of their favorite bands The Jonas Brothers!  I think I’d almost have rather been at that party than any of the balls.

So, if the economy looks like it’s going nowhere fast, and Disney has the best internal information on where their bookings are headed (which we won’t get an update on for couple of more weeks and which I think we can safely assume is DOWN in general), then they had to do something.  So they asked a bunch of middle and senior middle managers to take one for the team.  Shrewd.

Let’s do a little back of the napkin math (you know how much we love to do that here, it’s bred into us engineers you know).  Disney is offering packages to 600 executives to leave the company voluntarily according to the Sentinel article.  So there will be a short term hit for whatever the buyout options are (probably some amount of severance, buyout of vacation time/sick leave, maybe some vesting perks and other things like extended free tickets for part of the year).  The question is what’s the long term savings?

Let’s say the average pay of the pool of 619 is about $130,000 (they don’t say how high up or down, just senior level).  Mickey’s cost for those employees is probably something like $200,000 (that includes employer’s half of OASDI, health benefits, stock plans, etc. etc. etc.).  So if you slice out all 619 at $200k a piece, that’s about $124 million a year in savings, much of which probably goes straight to the bottom line.

Disney currently has 1.85 billion shares outstanding, so that works out to about $.068 cents PER SHARE in savings.  Let’s get a little perspective on what that means. 

A year ago Disney reported $.63 a share in income for the past comparable quarter ending in Dec. 2007 ($.40 a share for the companies fiscal fourth quarter that ended in September of 2008 BTW).  The current analyst consensus for this quarter just passed, to be posted on Feb 3rd, is $.53 a share.  Disney hasn’t given any guidance that they won’t make their numbers (though they tend to not do that in general like some other companies), so lets presume we are in the ballpark.

IF that savings HAD BEEN REALIZED in this quarter with that average, than the $.07 a share would have accounted for around 13% of the 53 cents. 

That’s nothing to sneeze at, even if your one of the 7 dwarfs.  Disney knows what the last quarter numbers are looking like already.  In fact, I bet you they knew them within a week of closing the quarter, plus or minus a penny.  So if you are management, you get on this now, look to shave 3-4 cents a share in the current quarter and another 5-7 cents from there on out.  And most importantly, nobody spent the holiday without a job.

It doesn’t sound like much, but it adds up quick.

And then there were 8

Say what you want about Disney looking to turn the corner sooner rather than later, or attendance being up higher than expected, but this is ONE LOCKED DOWN mouse.

I’m proud of Disney that to date they haven’t had to lay anybody off.  That’s a bid deal in an economy like this, and it says a lot about the leadership at the top.  I think it’s also a good reflection of the values that Walt left with the company, who from what I can tell always hated having to let people go when there wasn’t enough current money to fund his dreams and ambitions.  People remember these things, and it all pays in goodwill if nothing else.

As proof that the company is taking this incredibly seriously AND slowly I think you have to look no farther than the job board at Disneycareers.com.  Right now there are only 8, yes you read that right, EIGHT full time, professional job openings at WDW.  And that is being generous on my part since 1 of those is an internship and the other is a long posted opening for ‘The American Idol Experience’.  In reality there are 6.

1 in DVC sales, 1 as a Chef, 2 at the Disney associated Credit Union, 1 at ESPN in Coral Gables, and 1 called the TA Competition Coordinator which has no information what-so-ever about it when you click on it. 

If you take out ESPN, the EPSN Zone and the ABC directly owned TV stations, there are only 203 jobs open in a company that employs over 100,000.  It’s hard to say how many of those are internships since each BU does their listings a little differently, but I’d say they account for at least another 30-40 listings.  Talk about tight!

Disney in China

It has been another interesting week for the Disney Company on many fronts. Recent positive press shows that Mickey and crew are:

• The number 1 website in unique visitors in the ‘Kids Entrainment’ and ‘Family Community’ categories with a running average of over 28 million unique visitors a month last year
• Disney is set to launch their latest new enterprise aimed at the lost Disney demographic, young boys 6-14, with “Aaron Stone”.
• This weekend according the Jim Hill should also be a very busy one for the parks in Florida at a minimum, and probably good for the SoCal parks as well, with attendance swelling to a much more pre-recession type level.
• And of course Wall*E won a Golden Globe

The stranger thing to me this week though is the doings in Shanghai, with multiple announcements here, there and frankly everywhere. Disney saying basically what everybody knows in ‘Yeah, we are working on something, but a long way to go.’ The Chinese Ministry on the other hand is saying, ‘Nope, no deal here.’ And yet the Mayor saying, ‘No, we’ve reached a deal.’

Kinda reminds me of the old Abbott and Costello shtick for ‘Who’s on First’.

I think the most interesting, and probably poignant quote in the ‘Window of China’ article (that’s the last link in the above paragraph) is: ‘He said the government has been in talks with Disney for more than ten years . . .’

I’ve done some business in the Far East, and that little comment goes to show you just how LONG it can take to consummate a deal in places like China. They have a much longer timeframe than you or I do when it comes to just about anything, and business especially. It takes a long term RELATIONSHIP with the companies and peoples in China, and 10 years is probably a minimum down payment.

That said, I think we all know that the park will probably be built at some point. My bet is the 2014 is more of a target and not a hard and fast bet at this point though, and that the park in question will be much like Hong Kong and other recent Disney parks in being a ‘half day’ park to start with, with a longish ramp-up to a moderate size build out.

I’ve got some other thoughts on the upcoming Busch Entertainment deal as well, but I’ll save those for another post.

Disney gets in on ‘Guitar Hero’ fame

Disney has partnered with US Music Corp, the parent company of Washburn Guitars (among others), to brand and release a REAL guitar game called ‘Disney Star Guitarist’ that works somewhat like Guitar Hero and Rock Band with the cascading notes, but instead of using unrelated, color coded plastic buttons, uses REAL strings on a REAL guitar…  cool! Apparently US Music Corp owns the necessary copyrights to keep competitors at bay as well.

Can I use the word real in there anymore?

Nothing up on the US Music Corp website at the moment, but you can watch an interview and demo below thanks to the folks at Wired.

Available this summer of ‘09 for about $200 for both Mac and PC.  You supply the guitar.

Watch out mom and dad, you too could be harboring the next Miley or Kevin, Joe and Nick and just not know it yet!

Anne Sweeney at CES

Well, it’s been a busy couple of weeks for the Disney Company no?

I’ve read this, and that, and even more about Shanghai, extended park deals, and the popularity of the free on your b-day in California vs. in Florida.  It’s been busy.

Those of you who have read this site in the past though know that I’m interested in the business behind the Mouse as much as anything else.  So I like listening to the exec’s and conference calls and other business related stuff to see what’s really going on and where things are going at a more business macro level.

That’s why I find online information like the recent speech Anne Sweeney gave at CES so interesting.  These people are either telling us where they are going openly, or telling you where they are going between the lines.  Disney is as good as anybody at communicating in both ways just like anybody else.

So when Anne tells us that lots of people were upset when they tried the iTunes thing whereas today it’s taken for granted, just 2 short year after introduction, across almost all the media networks that we consumers can get access to our favorite shows in a variety of ways, we should probably be paying attention.  Anne notes that while they consider the iTunes model of tens of millions of downloads successful, they consider the ABC AD-SUPPORTED streaming player to be even more successful with HUNDREDS of millions of streamed shows all supported by ads.  Apparently you and I aren’t that bothered by ads after all if they come when we want to watch them.

Anne talks a lot in her discussion about VOD (video on demand), time shifted and traditional network formats (what are now called liner channels).  It’s interesting stuff, and the fact that something as obscure as Camp Rock can launch an online campaign as little as 3 days before it shows on the Disney Channel and then go on to be the most watched cable channel show of the YEAR surely says something for where we are in regards to media consumption. 

You can watch Anne’s talk too right here.  It’s about 30 minutes in length and full of interesting little statistics, facts, and even previews of this season’s upcoming run of LOST.

Fun Disney Fact of the Day

Hope all of you had a fun and happy holiday season!

Just getting things moving around here again, and saw this cool post of pictures over at Imaginerding about Splash Mountain. 

Which got me to thinking about my backstage trip behind Splash into the netherworld of The Magic Kingdom…  and have you ever wondered why you didn’t smell like bleach or your clothes end up with little white spots on it after getting totally soaked on this fun ride?

Well, the fact is that at least on this ride Disney DOES NOT use chlorine (aka concentrated form of the watered stuff you and I get in bleach).  Instead they mostly use bromine, which has been used in many industrial situations like this one where chlorine would just be too nasty.

Oh, and if you really want to geek out here is on old water discharge application for the Disneyland resort that shows where ALL of the water discharge points are throughout the resort (or at least where they were)!