Fall Deals, Upcoming Conference Call and Rapunzel by Request

Disney is already offering both regular and targeted trip deals for this fall.  Today in e-mail I received the following ‘targeted’ ad with a pin number unique to me. 

I post this to give you an example of the types of deals Disney is offering for the fall.  I don’t know how they pick PIN offers, nor do I have any idea how many different ones there are.  People are STILL trying to figure that one out in other places online! 

Mousesavers.com or your travel agent are still the best on going resources for current announced public deals.

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Choose the offer that’s right for you!

Kids 3–9 stay, play and dine...FREE Purchase this 4-Night/4-Day vacation package, which includes accommodations, Theme Park tickets and the Disney Dining Plan and a kid 3–9 can stay, get 4-day Theme Park tickets and the Disney Dining Plan, FREE.

$ 632 *   per adult, based on adult double occupancy in a standard room at a select Disney Value Resort. For stays most nights 10/2/09–11/24/09. Child must stay in room with adult. Maximum of four Guests per room. Excludes gratuities. Children 3–9 must order from the children's menu where available. Use PIN: or

Save on a vacation to the Walt Disney World Resort! Enjoy a 4-Night/4-Day vacation package, including accommodations and Theme Park tickets, for just:

$ 377 *   per adult, based on adult double occupancy in a standard room at a select Disney Value Resort. For stays most nights 10/2/09–11/24/09. That’s a savings of $94! Use PIN:

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We’ll get a chance on May 5th (that’s next Tuesday) after the market closes at 4:30 EST to listen in on the 1st quarter conference call.  I expect that attendance will still be decent in numbers, but overall guest spending will still be down and discounts will also factor into that. 

I also expect that Disney will give some guidance that suggests slow recovery, as evidenced by the above offers, though the deals are slowly getting smaller as well.  $94 is no where near the savings of some of the previous deals; granted for the dates in question you’re already in Value season.  So it looks like they are projecting a slow recovery in pricing power throughout the year.

Lastly, David asked in the comments section to yesterday’s blog if I could share a little more information about the latest D23 issue and specifically the Rapunzel article.  Here are a few high level shots that show the table of contents and the general layout of the Rapunzel article (though you’ll have to buy the magazine to actually read it. . . I don’t want to rip off other people’s intellectual property obviously.)  Sorry I couldn’t get the book exactly flat; the binding in the magazine is very stiff.

The below pictures and information are copyright Disney, Inc.

  

Disney Cruise Line Modifies Mexico Sailings

This just in from Mary Kraemer at Mouse Ear Vacation:

As a result of the recommendation for non-essential travel to Mexico right now, Disney Cruise Line modified the May 2, 2009 Western Caribbean itinerary of the Disney Magic to include a stop in Nassau, The Bahamas, instead of Cozumel, Mexico.

 
The itinerary will be as follows:

• Saturday Depart Port Canaveral
• Sunday Key West, Florida
• Monday Day At Sea
• Tuesday Grand Cayman, Cayman Islands (tender ashore)
• Wednesday Day at Sea
• Thursday Nassau, The Bahamas
• Friday Disney’s Castaway Cay, The Bahamas
• Saturday Arrive Port Canaveral

At this time, no itinerary changes have been made to future Western Caribbean voyages.

More information at the Cruise Line website here.

D23 Ships Summer 2009 Magazine

This just came in the mail today…

It actually is a pretty nice edition, I have to give them credit.  Which is funny, because this one has a very nice set of credits in the front.

There are no fewer than 9 articles and 6 regular features and it clocks in at a respectable 61 pages.  A couple of the really cool articles are a piece on the upcoming Rapunzel and a nice interview/article with Bob Weiss about the makeover at DCA.  I also like the article that shows plenty of pictures and talks about the new Monsters, Inc. ride at Tokyo.

The folks at D23 also provided a nice little replica of a souvenir fan from the opening year of Disneyland.  Check out the pics below:

 

It nothing extravagant, but I actually find it pretty cool.

Space Mountain Down for the Count

Just back from a quick trip to Florida where my wife and I (for the first time sans little one since before she was born) spent the weekend camping at Fort Wilderness and enjoying the LATE hours many of the parks were open coming off the busy Easter break.

Friday night and last night both saw the Magic Kingdom open until 3 AM for Extra Magic Hours!!!! Ouch if you were on duty. We didn’t make it past 1 (light weights that we are these days). Strangely however, and as Len Testa pointed out recently on the WDW Today podcast, Disney must be having a hard time getting the crowd levels right and if the crowds we saw are indicative of what’s going on, this is going to be a VERY BAD quarter for the TP&R guys as well.

Len and Fred’s Crowd Calendar gave estimates this last weekend of attendance being a 9, which means very significant waits for rides. However, my wife and I found the crowd to frankly probably never have been much above a 6, 7 at most in the early afternoon across any of the four parks (we saw peak waiting times in the 60-70 minute category, but nothing more). Ample parking, plenty of long hours and more than enough time to see what ever we wanted.

I can’t BEGIN to count the number of times we started in the FastPass line only to switch to the non-FastPass line to conserve them for a future date because we didn’t need to use them. The Cast Members WILL however take them if you come down the FastPass line regardless of the lack of people in the other line. At 12:30 in the morning no ride except Peter Pan?!?!? had more than a 10 minute wait.

We also had a chance to poll many of the folks in Tomorrowland on any information about the Space Mountain re-hab… not a lot to go on, but we did get this out of one cast member (my paraphrase):

• NO audio an no new track system ala California
• updated loaded platforms with gates
• upgrades to the queue and overhead affects
• mostly updates to address control system updates to increase the reliability of the dispatch and control systems. Currently the ride is very difficult to recycle from cars that miss their dispatch window, and that causes lots of downtime
• focus on ‘keeping it authentic, since it’s the original’

Don’t know how well this person knew what was going on, but it was a pretty detailed list.

Oh, and got evacuated from Big Thunder this past weekend. Fun.

Offers the World Over

We’ve taken up a short conversation in the comments section of Len Testa’s new blog at www.touringplans.com on the price changes Disney World has announced for most of 2010 to customers making reservations in and traveling from the UK.  You can see the original post here.

Of course the prices have gone up dramatically on the surface, but as Brian Noble pointed out in the first comment, a lot of that probably has to do with the change in currency over the last several months.  The British Pound has lost some 25-30% against the green back in the last several months.  So if you do the conversions using any of the major search engines, you’ll find that the projected 2010 prices are in line with current domestic pricing for the same accommodation.  (Don’t let the 4 adult thing throw you, the rate is the same once you reach 2 adults until room capacity for most of these rooms, almost all of which are listed as accommodating 4 by Disney).

The real question is, of course, is that ‘communicating’ what Disney will be doing with domestic room rate for 2010 as well?  (i.e. more or less holding the line on per night charges).

This discussion inspired some more investigation on my part to visit Disney’s UK portal and do some poking around…  frankly I’m surprised that Disney doesn’t block it from ‘outside of the country’ access.

There are lots of things that Disney targets to foreign markets coming to the US that might surprise you.  Of course folks traveling from the UK typically have higher costs to actually GET to Florida, so they have to be competitive somehow over other domestic and European options.  They offer pretty good packages to Disneyland Paris as well.

Lastly I would think that the Disney Dining Plan is probably very attractive to folks from overseas.  Having done some international travel myself, I can tell you there is no place else in the world that offers as much food at the price that we American’s often take for granted. 

The last time I was in the UK a simple pub lunch of a small sandwich, a wedge of cheese, some chips and a soda might set you back 15 quid or more.  Dinners were MUCH more expensive.  There is a reason the US government authorizes per diem for dining for most of the UK in the $80-100 PER DAY range (yes, that’s per person).  Other European countries are similar.

Makes Disney look cheap no?

I’ll be in Florida for a long weekend at the World, so the blog will be a little quiet until mid next week!

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All of the below comes from the current website at http://wdtc.disneyinternational.com/DisneyWorldOffer/

2009 Free Dining:

Stay at a Disney Resort and Dine for FREE!*

Enjoy a Disney Dining Plan at no cost for your 2009 holiday!

Book now - offer ends 15 July 2009!

Book five nights or more at a selected Disney Resort for hotel stays between 2 August - 17 December 2009, and you'll receive free dining for the duration of your stay for everyone in your party.

- Opt for a Disney Moderate Resort and receive a Disney Quick (Counter) Service Dining Plan for FREE
- Opt for a Disney Deluxe Resort and receive a Disney Dining Service Plan for FREE

This fantastic offer is only available for bookings made between 1 April and 15 July 2009.

2010 Rates:

http://disneyworld.disney.go.com/wdwi/en_GB/genericPopup?id=SeasonalityChartPage2010

View All Special Offers

Disney Tickets for 2009:

DISNEY'S ULTIMATE TICKET
Ultimate flexibility, unbeatable value!*
Looking for the one ticket that allows you to experience all there is to see and do at Walt Disney World Resort in Florida, along with all the flexibility and freedom you need to make your dream holiday come true? A ticket that is valid for the whole duration of your holiday* and is also fantastic value? Then look no further than Disney's Ultimate Ticket!

Whether you like to plan out each day perfectly or simply go wherever the mood takes you, this is the one for you. With the ability to come and go as you please between all the Disney Theme Parks throughout the day, and enjoy the same privileges at the Disney Water Parks, and more, you play Disney your way.

You can also choose to visit to play a round of golf at Disney's Oak Trail Golf Course, a relaxed, nine-hole walking course designed for the entire family. Tee times are required and subject to availability. For tee times visit disneyworldgolf.com or call 001-407-939-4653. (If you are under 18 years of age, you must have your parent or guardian's permission to dial this number. International call charges or long distance call charges may apply.)

Disney's Ultimate Ticket is valid for either a two or three week break and, combined with a stay at a Disney Resort Hotel, allows you to also take advantage of an exciting range of benefits. It all adds up to the ultimate Florida holiday.

Disney's Premium Tickets
If you have less time to spend, you can also take advantage of Disney's Premium Tickets - also available to pre-purchase in the UK. These tickets allow you 5 or 7 days of unlimited access to all four Walt Disney World Theme Parks, plus either 5 or 7 admissions in 2009 and 2010 to the Disney Water Parks and more.

	Disney's Ultimate Tickets * Created Exclusively for UK and Irish Guests!		Disney's Premium Tickets **
	Perfect for a 3-week holiday * Valid for 21 days	Perfect for a 2-week holiday * Valid for 14 days	Disney's 7 Day Premium Ticket **	Disney's 5 Day Premium Ticket **
Magic Kingdom Park	X	X	X	X
Epcot	X	X	X	X
Disney's Hollywood Studios	X	X	X	X
Disney's Animal Kingdom Theme Park	X	X	X	X
Disney's Blizzard Beach Water Park†	X	X	PLUS 7 admissions in total to any of these Parks or attractions here down	PLUS 5 admissions in total to any of these Parks or attractions here down
Disney's Typoon Lagoon Water Park†	X	X
Disney's Wide World of Sports Complex††	X	X
Disney Quest Indoor Interactive Theme Park‡	X	X
Price***	21 Days	14 Days	7 Days	5 Days
Child	£239	£219	£199	£199
Adult	£259	£239	£219	£219

X This symbol denotes unlimited admissions with the freedom to visit more than one Theme Park or attraction on the same day.

Terms & Conditions:

* Disney's Ultimate Tickets: available for 2 and 3 week holiday durations. 2-week ticket expires 14 days from first day of use; 3-week ticket expires 21 days from first day of use.

** Disney's Premium Tickets: Theme Park admission and options must be used within 14 days of first use. All tickets: child ages are 3 - 9 years.

*** 2009 tickets must be used for the first time at any park listed above by 31 Dec. 09. 2010 Tickets must be used for the first time at any park listed above by 31 Dec. 2010.

**** Ticket prices are subject to change.

† Water parks subject to seasonal closure.

†† Valid only on some event days, require an additional admission charge.

2010 Free Dining:

Did you know that for stays between 1st August and 18th November 2010 select Disney resorts offer FREE dining?

Some Cuts are Deep, But the Parks Runneth Over

Al Lutz posted his usual informative and insightful update over at MiceAge.com today.  The interesting thing about Al’s article is how they got to some of those unfilled positions we talked about the other day on here. 

You’ll note that I said many of the positions in both California and Florida weren’t ‘real’ people layoffs, but were instead merely scheduled positions that weren’t going to be filled (something like 40% of the cuts were this way in P&R).  What Al highlights in California is how some of those were made.  I’m sure Florida isn’t much different, and that part IS pretty messy.

The way I read Al’s description if you were a VP for instance and had 4 Directors reporting to you in a back-of-house operation, it’s possible your 4 Directors got laid off and then you got DEMOTED back to a director over what is left of that organization and took a pay cut(if there’s much left at all).  That’s rough… so do you take a principled stand and loose your job or be thankful that you still have on in this economy even though you just took a hair cut?  Ouch.

I do know one thing for certain in Florida, through a friend (that works at WDW) of a friend (the used to work at WDW) that the cuts went into some places they hadn’t been in a long time, if ever.  Places like Reedy Creek Energy Services (WARNING:  Small PDF link), the folks that are responsible for electricity, water/sewer, trash, etc. even got whacked in this round.  How much I can’t say for sure, though if it’s like in California according to Al it’s possible the layoffs in these areas were token at best to ‘share the pain’. 

On the other hand, it’s also possible these cuts are because of the reduced capital expenditures and updates planned for ALL the parks at this point, and is just the beginning of a long stretch of low investment in new attractions, etc.  Something that would be backed up anecdotally anyhow by cuts at RCES, Imagineering and announcements in the 10k and other fora that they’ve cancelled more investment in HKDL, Paris is a tapped out group other than some ride makeovers, most stuff in Florida is on hold or canceled, and the only real big work in CA right now is all at the second gate. 

Who knows at this point…  only the folks at Jay’s level most likely.

All that said, the Florida parks are HONKING this week.  Aaron noted today back at The Disney Report no less than two posts saying that MK and DHS had both reached capacity pretty early in the morning.  I can’t fathom wanting to go to DHS and being told to park at Epcot and bus over… I’ve been there at Christmas and not had to do that.

It just makes me think more about my post not to far back about the balance between price and capacity.  As the price goes down, capacity gets eaten up quicker, but at what price?  Do people who couldn’t afford a more expensive Disney vacation suddenly say, ‘Hey, we afford that now.’ and go?  And if more of those folks that have to stretch to go at the lower price do go, they certainly probably aren’t the folks that Disney liked in the past that would have spent a lot of additional money on bling and plush to pad out those nice profit figures.  I’m sure Disney makes money on gate admission, but you can bet your FastPass that merchandise has a LOT higher gross margin and therefore profit contribution rate than tickets. 

You CAN go overboard and price too high however, as apparently evidenced in Al’s article and the OC Register video post about the new Celebration Roundup and Barbeque.  Then demand just falls off a cliff and you eat it, HARD.

I have to agree from what I’ve seen that Disney blew it on this one completely.  $119 for a typical family of 4 in a theme park atmosphere is just bordering on insane, even if it DOES have non-stop entertainment and is all you can eat.  They should have taken a cue from the wildly popular Whispering Cannon Cafe at Florida’s Wilderness Lodge (a Jones family favorite) instead of taking it from the Hoop-Dee-Doo Review.

I’m not trying to make a judgment call here about people who can and can’t afford to go to Disney, BTW.  I love Disney enough that I think EVERYBODY should be able to go whenever they want and be able to afford to do so.  However, any first semester business major will tell you that, in general, as you lower price, volume goes up and margins get squeezed (your costs are still your costs, no matter what you sell it for, unless you can cut them somehow too).  Plus you have the problems the need for extra capacity brings to deal with for wear and tear, quality, etc.  Overall, it typically leads to brand dilution and people won’t come back because they have a miserable time.  That’s just basic business 101.  

So either there is a lot more money out there than Disney or any of us thought, people still REALLY want to take vacations despite their debt situations, or maybe they might have overshot a little on the discounts?  In any case, you have to ask yourself if you REALLY want to be there with 30+ THOUSAND other people.  We’ll have to wait until late summer to see, since this is all now in the third fiscal quarter for Disney this year and those numbers won’t be reported for sometime. 

I know for me the quality and experience is generally inversely proportional to the crowd level and I’d happily pay a little more for my vacation if that meant a smaller crowd level. 

All I can say is hold on people, it’s gonna be a WILD summer.

That Quarter Is Over

March 31st brought the largest point rally in the markets since the Great Depression and the close of why is probably going to be another dismal earnings quarter for Disney by many counts.  The conference call and updates are scheduled until the 5th of May after the close of the market (4:15 EDT).

There has of course been a lot of talk lately about the layoffs in California and Florida.  From the sites I’ve looked at (the Orlando Sentinel, Facebook and the website AfterTheMouse among others) there appears, as you would expect, to be no rhyme or reason to the layoffs.  Some people had less than 10 years, many had over 30 and many of each had never had a job anyplace else. 

It goes without saying, layoffs often don’t make sense from the outside looking in.  We don’t know what management used as the true criteria (and won’t probably, since anybody who knows is presumably still employed), nor do we have a good view of the org chart from before or after.  My own experience is that often there are easy cuts on paper based on the guidelines (the Pareto principle is true after all) and then there are the rest which are approximately equal. 

That makes them harder to surmise the value and the impact of a particular set of cuts, especially when nobody above you wants to hear about your ideas, they just give you your ‘fair share’ of pain to deal out as best you can.  That’s hard on managers too, and it often makes an already bad situation even more tense (hence why they call security guards to escort people, which is pretty much a standard HR practice these days).  Good managers can be suddenly seen as bad managers just because they had to deliver bad news or did it in a bad way.

The most dangerous assumption is that ‘what you see is all there was’.  Remember, Bob Iger said they left the profitability of the individual business units to each BU head.  What’s in the news right now with Parks and Resorts is only one BU, and Jay Rasulo is only one executive among a group of peers who each has made cuts and adjustments to their end strength and hiring plans.  ESPN cancelled hundreds of new position announcements and other Disney business units have been laying off people for some number of months. 

I’m not sure we have a picture of what the total company wide layoffs are.  The fact that many of them are just positions that won’t go filled makes the TRUE number of ‘people casualties’ even smaller than the quoted 2% of total people (700 positions of the total 1900 were empty before and now continue to be empty for instance).

UPDATE:  For what it’s worth, often from an accounting and cash flow perspective those empty position cuts still save the company money since those positions are often budgeted in ahead of time.  When the position isn’t filled, that leaves that money to go someplace else (or in this case just not be there to begin with).

All in all it’s a messy time for everybody involved.  Sending out our thoughts and prayers for everybody affected (and yes, in my book that still includes the people who didn’t loose their jobs and had to make tough decisions in addition to those that were let go).

Lets also pray that it doesn’t get worse from here and even MORE REAL cuts are needed.